JOHNSON LEADS CHASE POINTS – AND CHASE DRIVER
RATING
DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. (Nov. 13, 2006) – You
couldn’t have scripted a better scenario for the 2006 NASCAR
NEXTEL Cup Series season finale. Jimmie Johnson and Matt Kenseth
rank first and second in the series standings and season-to-date
Driver Rating, respectively.
Johnson currently holds a 63 point lead over
Kenseth heading into the season finale this weekend at
Homestead-Miami Speedway. The close points race is also
reflected in season-to-date Driver Rating. Johnson’s Driver
Rating of 102.0 leads over Kenseth’s rating of 101.6.
Current points leader, Johnson, has
out-performed every driver in the Chase for the NASCAR NEXTEL
Cup, including Kenseth.
Johnson’s Chase-specific Driver Rating of
110.3 is nearly five points higher than Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s
second-best rating of 105.5. Kenseth’s Driver Rating of 92.5
ranks fifth-best. Helping Johnson amass the highest
Chase-specific Driver Rating has been his ability to finish near
the front of the pack on a weekly basis. Johnson has one win in
the Chase and has the most top-five finishes during the Chase
with five. He’s also tied for the second-most top-10 finishes
during the Chase with five.
Johnson also has led several other key Loop
Data statistical categories during the Chase. He has led the
most laps during the Chase (16.3%) and has completed the Fastest
Lap 13.1% of the time. Additionally, Johnson’s Average Finish of
11.0 is best among Chase drivers.
Most impressive, Johnson has gained the most
points during the Chase of any Chase driver with 1,287. Kenseth
has gained the second-most points during the Chase with 1,219.
Johnson has averaged 143 points per event compared to Kenseth’s
135.4.
Driver Rating Continues to Predict Strong
Finishes…
Jimmie Johnson and Matt Kenseth have combined
to lead season-to-date Driver Rating for 27 weeks this season.
The season-to-date Driver Rating has been remarkably accurate in
predicting strong performance. In fact, a strong statement is
that the driver with the top season-to-date Driver Rating going
into a race can reasonably be predicted to finish in the top 15
of the upcoming race as long as the driver does not encounter
any problems with the car or involved in an on-track incident.
Here are some statistics on the accuracy of
season-to-date Driver Rating when using it to predict a driver’s
finish:
Race winner:
· The race winner
has had a season-to-date Driver Rating ranking in the
top 12 in 34 of the first 35 races (97% of the time).
The lone exception being Brian Vickers’ win at Talladega
in October, he was ranked 16th coming into that event.
· The winning
driver has had the top season-to-date Driver Rating four
times this season (11%).
· The race winner
has had a season-to-date Driver Rating ranking in the
top five in 14 of the first 35 races (40%).
· The race winner
has had a season-to-date Driver Rating ranking in the
top 10 in 25 of the first 35 races (71%).
· No one has ever
won a race with a season-to-date Driver Rating ranking
lower than 16th.
Top rated season-to-date driver:
As stated above, the driver with the top
season-to-date Driver Rating has won four times this
season (11%).
The driver with the top season-to-date Driver Rating
has recorded a top-five finish 12 times this season
(34%).
The driver with the top season-to-date Driver Rating
has recorded a top-15 finish 24 times this season (69%).
Loop Data Analysis from STATS LLC:
From Stefan Kretschmann of STATS LLC (the
company that compiles NASCAR’s Loop Data):
"Jimmie Johnson now leads in Driver Rating
along with the Chase for the NASCAR NEXTEL Cup. Johnson holds a
slight lead in Driver Rating over Matt Kenseth (102.0 to 101.6)
and has had the strongest Driver Rating during the Chase
(110.3). The numbers are even more impressive over the last five
races where Johnson has posted a Driver Rating of 127.1 and an
Average Running Position of 4.262. He’s led at least one lap in
each of the last seven races and posted at least three of the
Fastest Laps on the track in each of the past eight races. He’s
consistently been the Fastest Driver Late in a Run (average rank
of 7.515, best in the series) and has completed the most Quality
Passes (1,900) on the year."
Loop Logic …
The average top Driver Rating for 2006 is
107.9. The median finish for the top rated season-to-date
driver is 10th.
The average season-to-date Driver Rating
for the winning driver in 2006 is 95.7. The average pre-race
Driver Rating rank for the winning driver is 6.824.
Fastest Laps Run |
|
Laps in Top 15 |
|
Average Running Position |
Driver |
Fastest Laps |
|
Driver |
Laps |
|
Driver |
Average Place |
Kasey Kahne |
659 |
|
Jeff Gordon |
8,238 |
|
Jeff Gordon |
10.542 |
Tony Stewart |
631 |
|
Matt Kenseth |
7,701 |
|
Jimmie Johnson |
10.810 |
Greg Biffle |
587 |
|
Jimmie Johnson |
7,685 |
|
Matt Kenseth |
11.639 |
Jimmie Johnson |
575 |
|
Dale Earnhardt Jr. |
7,633 |
|
Jeff Burton |
12.492 |
Dale Earnhardt Jr. |
501 |
|
Jeff Burton |
7,570 |
|
Dale Earnhardt Jr. |
12.508 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Closers |
|
Mile Leaders |
|
Quality Passes |
Driver |
Positions Gained |
|
Driver |
Miles Led |
|
Driver |
Passes |
Tony Raines |
58 |
|
Tony Stewart |
1,662.10 |
|
Jimmie Johnson |
1,900 |
Bill Elliott |
46 |
|
Matt Kenseth |
1,432.23 |
|
Jeff Burton |
1,848 |
Travis Kvapil |
46 |
|
Greg Biffle |
1,337.41 |
|
Dale Earnhardt Jr. |
1,844 |
Ken Schrader |
45 |
|
Kasey Kahne |
1,063.28 |
|
Carl Edwards |
1,833 |
Jamie McMurray |
34 |
|
Jeff Gordon |
985.65 |
|
Kurt Busch |
1,826 |
NASCAR Loop Data Statistics – Glossary &
Definitions
Average Running Position – Sum of
driver position on each lap, divided by the laps run in the
race.
Box Score – Key statistics that
summarize a driver’s race performance.
Closers – The number of positions a
driver improves over the last 10 percent of the race.
Consecutive Laps With A Pass – Number
of consecutive laps with at least one pass.
Consecutive Passes Without Being Passed
– Number of consecutive passes without being passed.
Fastest Drivers By Straightaway –
Ranks each driver by average speed on each straightaway.
Fastest Drivers By Turn – Ranks each
driver by average speed in each turn.
Fastest Drivers Early In Run – Ranks
each driver during the first 25% of laps run in a typical
full green-flag segment.
Fastest Drivers Late In Run – Ranks
each driver during the final 25% of laps run in a typical
full green-flag segment.
Fastest Laps Run – Number of laps
that the driver had the fastest car on the track for that
lap.
Fastest On Restarts – Shows average
speed on the first two laps under green-flag conditions.
Laps Driver Improved Position – The
total number of laps where a driver improved his position
during a race.
Passing Breakdowns – For each driver,
shows how many and what percentage of passes were made by
each turn and each straightaway, including the total number
of passes.
Quality Passes – Number of times a
driver passes another car running in the top 15 under
green-flag conditions.
Speed In Traffic – The speed when
there is another vehicle within one car length under
green-flag conditions.
Time Trailing At Finish – The time
that each driver finished behind the race winner. Average
green-flag lap time is used to calculate cumulative time for
drivers not on the lead lap.
Top 5 Drivers Performance Graph –
Graphic showing the progressive performance of the top-five
finishers at different intervals throughout the race.
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